Technical progress, structural change and robotisation: insights from the growth patterns of “Visegrád” countries

This paper is aimed at providing empirical evidence about the structural change and the effect of the robotisation process which are affecting the economies of the so-called Visegrád countries, a group of former eastern bloc countries that have recently experienced a remarkable economic growth. The study is based on descriptive statistics which are theoretically based on the structural change approach and on the extended crisis theory. Data are drawn from the OECD STructural ANalysis database (STAN) and from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) database. Preliminary results suggest that Visegrád countries are following a virtuous growth path based on Hi-tech manufacturing and Knowledge Intensive Services (KIS) that benefits from the proximity with Germany. At the same time, this relationship could represent a limit in the short run, since Germany has recently entered in stagnation. A further potential limit could arise from the specialisation of most Visegrád countries in the automotive sector, which is one of the economic sectors whose workforce is more exposed to risk of substitution with machines. The article concludes by suggesting that the current transition phase should be supported by targeted public policies considering the positive externalities they could provide.