Local demand shocks and firms' survival: An application to the Italian economy during the Great Recession

The Italian economy is characterised by a large number of micro-firms and small firms and by a long-lasting gap between North and South Italy. Therefore, global shocks – such as the Great Recession – have had a heterogeneous impact at the local level: the collapse in private demand was unequally distributed across different products, services and regions. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to evaluate the impact of the Great Recession on firm's survival for the universe of Italian firms in the light of two relevant indicators: local exposure to crisis and local demand shocks. The results suggest a strong negative impact of local demand shocks on the survival of firms, whereas the degree of exposure to the crisis generally has a weak effect.