Can’t shake it off: Earthquakes and social cohesion in Italy

Do earthquakes strengthen social cohesion or undermine it? While some theories suggest they strengthen social bonds, others suggest they lead to social disintegration. We add to the limited causal evidence on this phenomenon using the 2012 Northern Italy earthquake, and ex- ploit a unique dataset that captures different earthquake characteristics and multiple dimensions of social cohesion through behavioral measures. Difference-in-differences and event-study esti- mates show that the earthquake shifted behavior toward individualism and out-group hostility, and that short-run increases in linking social capital were followed by later erosion. Critically, dwelling damage had stronger and more persistent effects than the physical shaking, suggest- ing that visible, measurable destruction has a more profound impact on social cohesion. These findings further advance our understanding by demonstrating that different dimensions of so- cial cohesion respond differently to earthquakes, with varying recovery patterns depending on earthquake characteristics.