Natural hazards are an increasing concern, placing disaster preparedness and mitigation at the forefront of policy agendas. In this context, Italy’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) has allocated €3 billion for explicit disaster prevention, with a primary focus on hydrogeological risks such as floods and landslides. This study evaluates the geographical and thematic distribution of resilience-related funding, examining whether financial resources have been effectively targeted toward municipalities with the highest exposure to environmental hazards. Using a clustering classification, we identify substantial disparities in the allocation of resilience funds, revealing that municipalities with relatively low risk levels often receive disproportionately high funding, while high-risk areas remain underfunded. To explore the underlying drivers of this misalignment, we apply a multinomial logit model to assess the socio-economic and geographic determinants of these funding disparities. Our findings indicate that GDP, macro-regional location, and past disaster occurrences significantly influence whether a municipality falls into a misallocated funding cluster. The misalignment between risk exposure and funding allocation raises questions about the criteria used for distributing adaptation investments and highlights the necessity for a more risk-sensitive and equitable approach.
Funding Resilience or Missing the Mark? An Analysis of RRF Allocation and Climate Risk Alignment in Italian Municipalities
Giulio Breglia;
2026-01-01
Abstract
Natural hazards are an increasing concern, placing disaster preparedness and mitigation at the forefront of policy agendas. In this context, Italy’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) has allocated €3 billion for explicit disaster prevention, with a primary focus on hydrogeological risks such as floods and landslides. This study evaluates the geographical and thematic distribution of resilience-related funding, examining whether financial resources have been effectively targeted toward municipalities with the highest exposure to environmental hazards. Using a clustering classification, we identify substantial disparities in the allocation of resilience funds, revealing that municipalities with relatively low risk levels often receive disproportionately high funding, while high-risk areas remain underfunded. To explore the underlying drivers of this misalignment, we apply a multinomial logit model to assess the socio-economic and geographic determinants of these funding disparities. Our findings indicate that GDP, macro-regional location, and past disaster occurrences significantly influence whether a municipality falls into a misallocated funding cluster. The misalignment between risk exposure and funding allocation raises questions about the criteria used for distributing adaptation investments and highlights the necessity for a more risk-sensitive and equitable approach.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
