Simulating COVID-19 containment measures using the South Korean patient data

As the COVID-19 outbreak evolves around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) and its Member States have been heavily relying on staying at home and lock down measures to control the spread of the virus. In last months, various signs showed that the COVID-19 curve was flattening, but the premature lifting of some containment measures (e.g., school closures and telecommuting) are favouring a second wave of the disease. The accurate evaluation of possible countermeasures and their well-timed revocation are therefore crucial to avoid future waves or reduce their duration. In this paper, we analyze patient and route data collected by the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (KCDC). We extract information from real-world data sets and use them to parameterize simulations and evaluate different what-if scenarios.